With adult-use legalization in Germany officially set to be legalized by the incoming government, the country of 84 million residents is on its way to becoming the largest cannabis market in Europe–and possibly the world. The news also makes Germany the latest nation to transition from an existing medicinal market to adult-use, a process that must incorporate lessons learned from experts both in Germany and around the globe. With all eyes watching, success or failure in Germany will have an enormous impact on future federal legalization pushes worldwide.
While we can look ahead to legalization with cautious optimism, it is important to not overlook the fact that there is much work to be done before German citizens can walk into dispensaries and make purchases. While cannabis legalization has always been an important goal, it is by no means the finish line. Drafting and implementing regulatory legislation is extremely demanding and complex. EU law, international law and German drug policy are all key components. If we are going to make legalization in Germany a success, we must get to work.
Learning from our own mistakes
Adult-use legalization is new for Germany, but the country has previously been in a similar position. When medical cannabis was legalized in 2017, the complexity of the roll-out led to many problems. There were bottlenecks in the delivery process, and domestic cultivation didn’t start until four years after the law was passed. To this day there are still patients desperately searching for doctors who are knowledgeable in cannabinoid-based therapy and, to date, only 2% of German doctors have prescribed cannabis. Meanwhile, annual cultivation is currently limited to just 2.6 tonnes and only one of the three selected companies has begun delivering cannabis.
In order for implementation of adult-use cannabis to be more than just a legislative success, it is crucial that we have discussions with those who partook in the creation of our medicinal market to ensure we do not repeat these mistakes. Germany must be prepared to meet the strains of an even more demanding adult-use market.
In the short term, demand is expected to be about 200 tonnes annually, but economist Justus Haucap has predicted that demand could rise as high as 400 tonnes in the future. Based on those previous struggles, we now know we must have the supply to fulfill this demand. Not only that, but we must build the infrastructure it will take to keep up with that rising demand. Therefore, we will rely strongly on imports. For many US cultivators this will be a big business opportunity, but the US government must first allow states to export legally, or risk missing out.
Other aspects of this critical infrastructure are dispensaries, strong distribution channels, and well educated salespeople to ensure that not only good products and services are available, but that we also prioritize the protection of minors and ensure quality control. If we don’t take these measures, the illicit market will continue to thrive.
Learning from others
Just as it is important to take our own experience into account, we must also turn to other countries who have legalized adult-use cannabis for guidance. Canada is an example of another nation that found itself crafting adult-use legislation after experiencing stumbles with their own medicinal market.
In its creation, one of the primary goals of the legalized Canadian market was to eliminate the illicit market. This was something that turned out to be much more difficult and time consuming than anticipated due in part to a limited number of dispensaries, and high prices that couldn’t compete with the illicit market. German regulators and lawmakers should review how Canada has managed all aspects of their own legalization process in order to avoid these same mistakes.
Another significant challenge Germany will face is achieving legalization within the parameters of the UN Single Convention on Narcotic Drugs of 1961. Unlike Canada and Uruguay, it’s not likely that Germany will simply ignore this international law. Instead, we predict that Germany will need to leave the convention and then rejoin, similar to what happened with Bolivia in the legalization of the coca plant beginning in 2011. This falls in line with the Green party’s 2018 policy, which is the most sophisticated draft of a cannabis law in Germany to date.
Any country that hopes to cultivate a successful national cannabis market will have to contend with these same international regulatory hurdles, Germany can be a model for how it can be done successfully.
Complex regulatory questions need answers
The intensely complex regulatory questions that will come following legalization–expected in 2024–only emphasize the need to ensure that we are doing all that we can to avoid these past mistakes, and listening to those who have experience.
Some of these very same questions came up during the launch of Germany’s medicinal market. Which companies should and are allowed to grow cannabis? Who controls cultivation and oversees crop quality? Who will oversee imports and exports? How does Germany ensure that trade and sales are carried out in accordance with EU and international law? And now that we know cannabis will be sold in dispensaries rather than in pharmacies, what will the process of opening a dispensary look like from a regulatory perspective?
Another massive regulatory hurdle for Germany will be overcoming the negative impacts of the illicit market. This means that sales must be controlled and there must be procedures in place to ensure quality standardized products.
The individuals best equipped to help answer these questions regarding adult-use are those who have already answered them in the medical field. The incoming coalition must not only invite representatives from medicinal cannabis companies, but law enforcement and government officials, addiction specialists, as well as pharmacies who have experience with distribution. Not including these individuals in drafting new regulations would be negligent and result in failure of the policy as a whole.
Our only path to long term success here in Germany and as a global cannabis community is to tackle these challenges head on. This means bringing the aforementioned parties to the negotiating table to ensure past mistakes, made both here at home and abroad, are not repeated. We must master these regulatory challenges together.
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